The Coming Anarchy - Robert Kaplan free essay sample

Robert Kaplan published his essay entitled, The Coming Anarchy. In his essay, Mr. Kaplan theorized that the region of Western Africa is becoming the â€Å"symbol of worldwide demographic, environmental, and societal stress†. He identified numerous political, social, economic, and environmental issues affecting Western Africa, which in his opinion, would lead to the demise of that African region within the next 50 years. Mr. Kaplan further theorized that nations worldwide would eventually contract the same problems occurring in Western Africa and collapse into anarchy. Mr. Kaplan’s prediction of worldwide anarchy is inaccurate, since his argument relies on broad generalizations and insufficient credible examples and sources of information. Western Africa exhibits many of the problems common in the world’s developing nations, including overpopulation, crime, drug cartels, limited marketable commodities, the prevalence of infectious diseases, and scarcity of natural resources. Kaplan predicted that as time continued, the countries of Western Africa would also continue to decline. In doing so, his diagnosis fails to address opportunities in innovation, advances in technology, and an international system capable of self-correction. In previous decades, international assistance to West African countries was in the form of food and monetary aid or a reduction of debt. Today, foreign investment through energy partnerships and trade agreements with North American, European, and Asian countries are increasing, especially with the oil-rich country of Nigeria. Germany is investing heavily in Nigerian crude oil for its industrial uses, and in turn, Nigeria is importing German equipment and other industrial goods. Great Britain, another major player in the European market, has recently agreed to invest $250 million dollars over the next four years to improve border crossings in Western Africa, which will help facilitate trade throughout the continent. China is initiating large-scale infrastructure related construction projects, including a new railway system, road improvements, bridges, energy stations, schools, and cellular-phone networks in several African nations. In his 1994 essay, Kaplan describes the country of Liberia as one that is war-torn, led by inexperienced rebel leaders, and has over 1 million displaced civilians. Today, Liberia has had a decade of peace, held presidential and general elections, improved its social services and infrastructure, and protected human rights. As recently as 2013, the United States and Liberia entered into an agreement to cooperate and improve Liberia’s agriculture and energy sectors. Liberia now ranks among the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa, even though the nation is still navigating through long standing issues typical of a developing Western African nation. The ability of Liberia to rebound from its political, economic, and social issues of the past exposes a serious flaw in Kaplan’s theory, and further demonstrates the ability of the international community to self-correct. As a region, Western Africa has recently experienced positive economic growth. The Western African economy grew at a rate of 6. 9 percent during 2012, an increase over the 5. 9 percent in 2011. The achieved economic growth in the sub-region was more than double the global rate, according to a report delivered at the just-ended 42nd Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in the Ivory Coast. In 2012, Sierra Leone, once considered a microcosm of the upcoming anarchy by Mr. Kaplan, experienced the highest growth rate (18. 3%) of any Western African nation. In his analysis, Kaplan supports his worldwide anarchy theory using Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast, as examples to characterize the entire sixteen country Western African region. Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast are both located on the southern coast of Western Africa, and endured military coups, economic troubles, and trade conflicts during the 1980’s. Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast have similar economies dominated by trade and exportation of goods, and are not oil-producing nations. Kaplan made a mistake by selecting countries that were too geographically and economically similar, and thus, discredits his statement of Sierra Leone being a â€Å"microcosm of what is occurring† in Western Africa. Kaplan considered Nigeria, with its extensive supply of oil reserves, to be the country with the greatest future growth potential in Western Africa. However, Kaplan’s fixation with his worldwide anarchy theory caused him to still overlook Nigeria’s energy potential, and assume that a Nigeria of the future would be borderless, overpopulated, impoverished, and ripe with famines. Additional, unbiased research on Nigeria’s energy potential by Kaplan would have demonstrated that Nigeria’s future was bright, despite the social, political, and environmental problems existing in 1994. Given the political, economic, social, and environmental differences that exist in Western Africa, Kaplan further erred by only selecting three countries in ormulating his theory of worldwide anarchy. By using only three countries in a sixteen country region that is so diverse, Kaplan’s conclusions seem incomplete. Incorporating pertinent data and information from the entire region of Western Africa would have given more credibility to his theory. Kaplan’s analysis also seems flawed since some of his information is obtained from personal observations and testimonies from historians and potentially biased commentators, including a devoted environmentalist (Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon). Kaplan’s prediction that the downfall of Western Africa would trigger worldwide anarchy was not fundamentally sound. Kaplan underestimated the ability of the international community to self-regulate and reverse a negative course of action. If Kaplan had not used broad generalizations to support his theory of worldwide demise and instead used sound, unbiased, scientific and demographic data, I believe he would not have predicted such a grim worldwide outlook for the next 50 years.